At the time I am writing this, there are still eight weeks until the premiere of the year’s most anticipated movie, Star Wars: Episode One – The Phantom Menace. Despite high degrees of secrecy, the entire plot is freely available on the internet for those who wish to spoil the surprises. For example, one could click here. (Warning: I’m not kidding…the details and secrets of the whole movie are revealed in that link.) In this article, I will discuss my current thoughts on the Star Wars Prequels and the inevitable backlash. I have divided the article into two parts, since I know there are some of you who wish to remain pristine in their lack of knowledge of the Star Wars prequels. The first part (which you are now reading) contains no spoilers. In Part 2, I will discuss a few minor spoilers.

First of all, I want to raise the question: Will Episode One be seen as a success? Well, money-wise, from the merchandising alone, it already is. However, perhaps it is better to rephrase the question: Will Episode One be perceived as a success?

There’s no question that Episode One will bring in a boatload of money. But the yardstick against which it will be measured is literally a boat: Titanic. Titanic pulled in $600,743,440 domestically Can Episode One hope to reach that total?

For those of you who automatically think, “of course”, consider the following: Only one film has ever grossed more than $400,000,000 domestically, much less 150% of that total. Even with the hugely successful reissues, the original Star Wars has only made $460,935,665. But, this isn’t the best way to look at these numbers.

The better way is to adjust these numbers for inflation. Adjusted to today’s dollars, Star Wars would have grossed $774,992,216. In fact, three other films would have passed the elusive $600,000,000 mark, when adjusted for inflation (Gone With the Wind, E.T., and The Sound of Music). However, Star Wars and E.T. were only able to pass the $600,000,000 mark on the basis of additional revenue from reissues. Can a sequel (especially a third sequel) surpass the earnings of the original? It has happened…but usually with low-grossing original films.

When we take a look at the adjusted-for-inflation grosses of the first two Star Wars sequels, a pattern emerges. The Empire Strikes Back earned $431,710,050, and Return of the Jedi made $413,782,013 (these totals include the Special Edition revenue). Each film has earned less than the previous one.

Judging by these numbers, Episode One should be able to make $400,000,000. In fact, I think it will surpass the earnings of both Empire and Jedi…but not the original Star Wars. Why? Well, for one thing, the fans have been chomping at the bit for seventeen years, waiting for a new adventure from the Star Wars universe (those Ewok TV movies notwithstanding…) Lucas could release a complete piece of trash with the Star Wars label on it, and the fans would go…just look a the Star Wars Special Editions…

Yes, let’s take a moment to examine the Special Editions, shall we. Ostensibly, they were done in an attempt to update some of the outdated special effects. In reality, their purpose was twofold: to bring Star Wars back into the limelight in preparation for the prequels, and to make oodles and oodles of money. Were they a good idea? Well, they certainly were for Fox and Lucasfilm, which made a bundle off the whole scam. They weren’t as good for the fans, and certainly not for the movies themselves.

On the plus side, the fans did get a chance to see the films in theaters again. However, aside from that, the Special Editions showed a complete and utter contempt for the audience. A few token scraps were thrown at a hungry audience, most of questionable taste and/or quality (the “new” Jabba the Hutt scene, and the revised Greedo-shoots-first addition come to mind). The team at Lucasfilm didn’t even bother fixing some of the glaringly bad special effects (the hopelessly dated “cardboard model” scenes during the Death Star attack, or the “fizzling lightsaber” during Obi Wan’s duel, for example). The new sound mix was a mixed blessing, allowing the new films to compare with today’s louder digital films, but also adding alternate sound cues…some of which completely distort the meaning from the original versions (Luke’s bloodcurdling scream when he now “accidentally” falls away from Vader). All things considered, the fans (and the movies themselves) would have been better off with an untampered reissue.

But the Special Editions did show that the fans would return in numbers for a glimpse of something new related to Star Wars. (However, it is also worthwhile to note that the three Special Editions followed the same declining earnings as the three films, adjusted for inflation.)

Episode One will certainly open huge. The only impediment to it breaking every known opening weekend record is the fact Lucas is restricting the total number of screens on which the movie will be shown. (However, I think Lucasfilm is making a grave error in disallowing Advance Ticket purchases during the first two weeks. These aren’t the 1970s. That move is more likely to irritate potential theatergoers than it is to deter scalpers. In fact, the only audience which it seems aimed to please are the Ewok-suited fans who are salivating to stand in line and experience the “event”.)

However, the true test comes a few weeks in… After the fanboys have suffered heatstroke and have been carried away via stretchers, and after families have finally been able to squeeze in the theater, will Episode One continue to draw the repeat viewings necessary to meet the $600,000,000 goal? The sheer amount of detailed special effects will guarantee at least a few repeat viewings. But those will primarily be dedicated fans, and more importantly, primarily male. The repeat viewings of that segment of the audience may be enough to surpass the 400 million mark, but it can’t get to 600 million by itself.

Once the film shows the first signs of slowing down, no matter what it’s quality or current earnings, there will be a definite backlash that forms against Episode One. For one thing, even if he makes the finest movie ever imagined, there’s no way Lucas is going to equal the expectations. He’s got his own high bar he must jump over (the holy triumvirate of Star Wars, Empire and Jedi), as well as a huge amount of fan anticipation. That anticipation is always much more exciting than the actual event, and it would be impossible for Lucas to surpass it.

Lucas himself knows this, and has attempted to rein in the hype as much as possible. But, he has failed. The hype is uncontrollable, and is certain to leave some people disappointed (whether deservedly so, or not). Then, there’s the jealousy factor. When it becomes apparent that Episode One might not surpass Titanic to become the top grossing film of all time, some Hollywood types will start to consider Episode One a failure (despite its almost assured rank of #2 all time). Be prepared to see a few articles along the lines of “Star Wars – What Went Wrong” come June/July.

Don’t misunderstand me. I’m not saying that Episode One is going to be a bad movie. Far from it, I am hoping for the best, and from early reports on the script, am somewhat optimistic about the film. However, I advise caution. No matter what the quality of the film, those who go in believing the over-hype are certain to be disappointed. Try to low-ball your expectations if you can, and you will enjoy the experience much more. Episode One will likely not be the equal of Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, or even Return of the Jedi. It probably will not gross as much as Titanic. Then again, it doesn’t have to do any of those to be a good film. Just enjoy, and prepare for the inevitable backlash.

Hey, it’s never too early to talk about the Oscars! There may be very little chance of being accurate (I mean, at this point last year who would have picked the Paltrow-Benigni-Dench-Coburn combo?), but it’s fun to speculate.

Last year at this time, the three films which seemed to have a lock on Oscars were Beloved, The Thin Red Line, and Eyes Wide Shut. The first two gathered some nominations, but no awards…the last one still has not made it to theaters. There were some early rumblings about The Truman Show and Saving Private Ryan, but Shakespeare in Love was still seen as the ex-Julia Roberts film, and not one worthy of serious consideration. What a difference a year makes.

In any case, two of the front runners for next year’s Academy Awards would be The Green Mile and Man on the Moon. Both are films by respected directors, and each has a big star giving a potentially Best Actor winning performance.

The Green Mile is Frank Darabont’s follow up to The Shawshank Redemption. Like that film, it is an adaptation of an uplifting Steven King prison story. However, The Green Mile has one extra bonus: a performance by Oscar-fave Tom Hanks. However, this time out, my gut tells me that The Green Mile will be no Shawshank Redemption, and the Academy may finally deliver the long-expected backlash against Hanks.

I think Man on the Moon has a stronger shot. Milos Forman directs this biopic of Andy Kaufman, starring none other than Jim Carrey. The buzz on this project is very strong, with a hot script, and a performance by Carrey that is reportedly stunning. Carrey could land this year the elusive Oscar nomination he sought for The Truman Show.

In the Best Actor race, a few other actors I’d toss into the mix would be:

• Anthony Hopkins in his final performance before retirement (a Shakespearean role to boot) in Titus
• Robin Williams in Jakob the Liar (a Holocaust drama that sounds like a combo of Life is Beautiful and Good Morning Vietnam)
• Al Pacino as NFL coach Tony D’Amato in Oliver Stone’s Any Given Sunday

Anthony Minghella’s next film, The Talented Mr. Ripley has some potential. It’s got a hot young cast (including Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow and Cate Blanchett). I can see Paltrow and Blanchett grabbing actress/supporting actress noms from this one. Plus, never forget the power of the Miramax publicity engine.

At this point, I’m not sure about Stanley Kubrick’s final film, Eyes Wide Shut. I doubt it would get much beyond a token Best Director nod, given its steamy subject matter and Summer release date.

I seriously doubt the Academy will recognize much on Kevin Smith’s Dogma. Not only will the Academy shy away from the hint of controversy…but the script itself doesn’t seem that good. This one looks much more like a “fanboy” pic, rather than one the Academy is going to favor.

I predict there is going to be considerable backlash against Star Wars: Episode One – The Phantom Menace. (Both from the fan population as well as those in Hollywood). Don’t get me wrong, it will likely be a huge hit, and probably be an enormously entertaining film. The one thing The Phantom Menace does have are locks on the technical awards: Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Sound Effects Editing, Best Makeup, Best Costume Design, Best Art Direction. You can probably toss in Editing and Cinematography as well.

I don’t think it will grab any acting noms. Nor will it get a Best Picture or Best Director nomination. Screenplay is possible, but unlikely. John Williams will get a nomination, but not the award, for Best Original Score.

Here are a few more films that have potential:

• Magnolia. Paul Thomas Anderson’s follow up to Boogie Nights. It could grab a couple of supporting actor/actress noms, and possibly even reach for the top trio (screenplay, director and picture) if it is good enough.
• Summer of Sam – Spike Lee’s film has some good buzz right now. Two strikes against it: #1-It’s opening in Summer. #2-It’s directed by Spike Lee. Neither of which are known for attracting Academy awards.
• Fight Club – This one is shaping up to be another of those unusual films with strong, vocal supporters, but which gets overlooked by the Academy. It’s a summer opener, but if it is good enough, it could land a few acting noms (for Edward Norton, and Helena Bonham Carter, most likely).
• Anna and the King – Could land a Best Actress nod for Jodie Foster. Also, it could grab a few visual-related noms: Costume, and Art Direction.
• The Cider House Rules – Another one backed by the Miramax publicity machine. Good buzz on it so far…John Irving could get a nod for his screenplay adaptation. Plus, there could easily be a few acting nods in the mix (Michael Caine as Supporting Actor is most likely).
• The Cradle Will Rock – Tim Robbins directs this ensemble pic with good buzz. Take your pick as to who might be blessed with a nomination: Hank Azaria, Susan Sarandon, John Cusack, Joan Cusack, John Turturro, Emily Watson or Vanessa Redgrave.
• Ride With the Devil – Ang Lee’s followup to Sense and Sensibility is missing an Emma Thompson script, but still has the potential to grab a cinematography and/or costume nomination.
• The End of the Affair – A passionate love affair set during WWII? Starring Ralph Fiennes? This one has a good shot. Neil Jordan directs, and Julianne Moore could land a nod as the object of Fiennes’ affection.
• Flawless – MGM’s positioning this one as their “Oscar” pick (even if it is directed by Joel Schumacher). It does boast two showy roles: Robert DeNiro as a stroke victim, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman as a flamboyant drag queen.
• Don’t discount the other films backed by Miramax: Mansfield Park (Embeth Davitz as Best Actress?), and the two Billy Bob Thornton directed pics: Daddy and Them (with a talented ensemble), and the western All the Pretty Horses (whose young cast will likely be overlooked, but which could grab some technical nods).

Okay…that about does it for my 1999 predictions. But, as long as the crystal ball is out, here are my wildly inaccurate 2000 Oscar predictions:

Of course, the early favorite has to be Seed of Chucky. Okay, maybe not… Fellowship of the Ring has a good chance of grabbing a good portion of the technical awards, but it has to fight off Speilberg’s Minority Report and Travolta’s Battlefield Earth. If Scorsese can get his Dino pic off the ground (especially with his dream cast of Hanks, Travolta and Carrey…) that has a good chance of being the front runner for the year. Hanks could get a nod otherwise for starving himself in the Robert Zemeckis film, Castaway. Then, there’s Cameron Crowe’s new film, and Clint Eastwood’s aging astronaut opus, Space Cowboys to liven up the mix.

I’ll reserve my 2001 picks for a later article.